Archive for September, 2008

Do Candlestick Charts Work on Forex Charts?

Tuesday, September 30th, 2008

Do Candlestick Charts Work on Forex Charts?
In general Candlestick charting developed in the futures and stock markets and thus many of the patterns or techniques are suited more to these markets. Many still claim that Candlestick charting can be applied to the Forex market but there are limitations when the technique is used in Forex charts.

Buy the Strongest, Sell the Weakest
One of the best technical tools we can use in our analysis is the status other currency pairs. If you are of the opinion that because of fundamental reasons the US Dollar will weaken, your next step would be to find the currency pair that gives you the best chance…

Large Round Figures
Many traders, from the individual speculator to the large fund will focus on the large round figures or round numbers when applying their analysis to the FX-market for a number of reasons. Option traders tend to select these price levels whether their exercising American, European, or Exotic options, as well…

How a Drop in Natural Gas May Lead to a Rally in Yen
Typically, when multi-strategy hedge funds head to the currency markets to raise funds they will liquidate their most profitable positions first. Over the past six months this has inevitable meant carry trades. For example since its short term bottom on May 17th, USD/JPY with its 500 basis point positive interest…

The Dollar Rescue

Tuesday, September 30th, 2008

The Dollar Rescue
The success of the Federal Government’s rescue of the US financial system may not be known conclusively for several weeks or even months. But the currency market reaction is already charted. From mid-July until mid-September the dollar gained almost 13.5% against the euro. In the past two weeks, as Lehman…

Dollar’s Future Muddled By Financial Crisis, Expected Fed Cuts, NFPs

Tuesday, September 30th, 2008

Dollar’s Future Muddled By Financial Crisis, Expected Fed Cuts, NFPs
Volatility dominated the dollar landscape this past week, but direction was notably absent. However, looking at the building fundamental pressure behind the ongoing financial crisis - and the expectations for rate cuts that have been laid bare by this uncertainty - the potential for breakouts across the majors is material….

This Week’s Market Outlook
“Don’t worry about the mule being blind, just keep loading the wagon” seems to capture the market reaction as we await the fate of the ‘Troubled Asset Relief Program’ (TARP). The analogy refers to the absence of a deal, which is seeing generally better risky-asset performance. Congressional leaders are still…

EMU Economic Indicators Preview
The Eurostat flash estimate is likely to show that euro area inflation has decreased to 3.7% yoy in September. This would correspond with a monthly rate of 0.2% in unadjusted terms, although slightly lower prices for heating oil and gasoline probably dampened monthly inflation.

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