This week the Greek crisis got contagious and Portuguese, Spanish, Italian and Irish spreads began to widen notably. Risk aversion has increased, but so far contagion beyond the PIIGS has been moderate. The process was intensified by Standard & Poor’s downgrade of Greece and Portugal on Tuesday and Spain on…

Price action on USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, has reached up to the key 1.0900 resistance region before retreating. This occurs within the context of a strong continuing uptrend (extending from the November 2009 low below parity), and after price made a substantial bullish run in the…

EUR-USD plunged to a fresh 1-year low of 1.3114 this week as the debt crisis intensified. The European single currency could have bottomed out, however. In our view, the euro is unlikely to fall further, for the following reasons: